In light of the worsening economic outlook due to the Covid-19 outbreak, we at Fitch Solutions have revised our 2020 real GDP growth forecast to 4.5%, from 5.3% previously.
Mongolia’s heavy exposure to China’s economic health means that it will likely see a sharp slowdown in line with an exacerbated deceleration in China.
The revised forecast is still subject to downside risks given that it relies on China weathering the outbreak and still achieving its target of doubling the size of its economy in 2020 relative to 2010.
We at Fitch Solutions have revised down our 2020 real GDP forecast to 4.5%, from 5.3% previously, to reflect the heavy downside risks facing Mongolia’s already slowing economy. These risks are a result of Mongolia’s key vulnerability – its close economic links to China and high exposure to price fluctuations in some of its key exports including coal (38% of total) and copper (26% of total).
Source: Fitch Ratings